Film & TV Projections 2026

Like many media producers, I remain deeply concerned about where the business is headed. While sitting in the airport, I took the time to review projections for the remainder of 2026. What follows is a clear and consolidated view of what the data shows.

The film and television industry is in a stronger position today than it has been in several years, and that distinction matters.

After strikes, spending pullbacks, and a major reset in streaming economics, the business is beginning to regain its footing. This period of recalibration is being shaped by more disciplined production strategies, a renewed focus on original storytelling, and increasingly competitive global film incentives that provide producers with both stability and long term confidence.

Spending and production volume have not returned to prior peaks, but what we are seeing now is far more practical and sustainable. That is a clear sign the industry is moving into a healthier phase. This is not speculation. The data supports it. Audiences are returning, projects are being greenlit, and incentive programs across states and countries continue to strengthen.

At Entertainment Partners, we are seeing this positive shift early, well before cameras begin rolling. For producers who understand how to navigate this new production landscape, the opportunity is significant.

Audience demand is returning for original storytelling. One of the clearest indicators is the box office.

According to Comscore, year to date domestic ticket sales are running more than 20 percent ahead of the same point in 2025, reflecting both a stronger release slate and renewed demand for theatrical viewing. AMC reported admissions revenue for the weekend of March 20 was more than 70 percent higher than the same weekend a year earlier, and Gower Street Analytics projects the domestic box office could reach 9.9 billion dollars in 2026, making it the strongest year since before the pandemic.

What is especially encouraging is what is driving this momentum. Audiences are not just showing up for sequels and reboots. There is a meaningful resurgence in original content. Ryan Coogler’s Sinners grossed 370 million dollars globally without the support of an existing franchise, earned an A CinemaScore rating, and won the Golden Globe for cinematic and box office achievement. Ryan Gosling’s Project Hail Mary set an Amazon MGM record with an 80.6 million dollar domestic opening and has surpassed 500 million dollars worldwide. Pixar’s Hoppers is also delivering one of the studio’s stronger original performances in recent years.

On television, The Pitt Season 2 launched to 5.4 million viewers in its first week, nearly 200 percent higher than its Season 1 premiere. The breakout series Heated Rivalry is another strong example of what happens when story leads the process, with strong audience response, disciplined production costs, and a second season already approved.

A new format has also emerged in the form of micro dramas, sometimes referred to as vertical dramas. These short serialized projects are typically only a few minutes per episode, designed for mobile viewing and built for speed.

Micro drama apps now appear alongside major platforms like Netflix and HBO Max among the most downloaded streaming apps in the United States, with even higher adoption across Asia and Latin America. Major studios including Fox, Disney, and Paramount have entered the space, and SAG AFTRA has introduced a dedicated agreement for vertical content. This is not a fringe format. While it will not replace traditional film and television, it is opening an entirely new production lane with its own audience, economics, and pace.

Another encouraging development is the growing recognition of independent producers, supported by more targeted government incentives.

Ireland has long been a strong market for independent film and was the first to introduce a dedicated incentive. Its Section 481 program has been enhanced by the Scéal Uplift, increasing support to 40 percent for qualifying productions under 20 million euros. The United Kingdom has introduced the Independent Film Tax Credit, enhancing the existing Audio Visual Expenditure Credit to 39.75 percent for films with budgets up to 15 million pounds.

In the United States, New York State now offers a dedicated 100 million dollar Independent Film Tax Credit. This program provides a highly competitive 30 to 40 percent credit and allows productions to claim benefits in the year a project is completed, without competing directly with large studio productions.

These policy decisions reflect a clear understanding that independent producers require dedicated support, not simply access behind large studio projects. The fact that Ireland, the United Kingdom, and New York have all moved in this direction at the same time signals a meaningful shift in the industry.

Across the United States, incentive programs are expanding in both scale and duration. New York, New Jersey, California, Texas, and Illinois have all made long term commitments that provide producers with greater certainty and encourage sustained production activity.

California’s Film and Television Tax Credit Program now totals 750 million dollars annually, with an additional 150 million dollars allocated to soundstage development through 2030. New York has increased its cap to 800 million dollars and extended the program through 2034, with a possible extension to 2036. New Jersey offers up to 40 percent credits through 2039, while Texas and Illinois have also expanded their programs with extended timelines and increased incentives.

Taken together, these programs establish a strong baseline for domestic production spending, estimated between 7 and 8 billion dollars annually. When uncapped states such as Georgia, Illinois, and Massachusetts are included, total production activity could rise to between 10 and 15 billion dollars annually, with further growth expected as newer programs mature.

Internationally, the opportunity is equally compelling. Canada continues to offer a highly competitive combination of federal and provincial incentives. The United Kingdom provides one of the most attractive frameworks for both production and post production. Ireland, France, and Australia all maintain stable and competitive programs that continue to attract global projects.

A significant recent development came at the Series Mania Festival in Lille, where the Council of Europe introduced a new co production treaty designed specifically for television and streaming series. This framework simplifies cross border collaboration, revenue sharing, and access to funding, creating new opportunities for independent producers working internationally.

Film incentives are no longer simply a financial advantage. They are a decisive factor in determining what gets produced and where projects ultimately land.

Film commissioners and organizations such as AFCI play a critical role in this process. They help producers evaluate not only the financial benefits of a location but also its practical viability, including permitting, crew availability, infrastructure, and overall production support.

This year’s AFCI Studio Summit in Los Angeles arrived at an important moment for the industry. The event brought together studio executives, producers, location managers, service providers, and film commissioners for direct and substantive discussions about production trends and competitive positioning.

During the summit, I had the opportunity to participate in a panel titled Where Production Is Actually Landing, presented by ProdPro and moderated by CEO Alex LoVerde. The conversation included Jeremy Kipp Walker of LAIKA, formerly head of production for Netflix’s Independent Film division, along with film commissioners from around the world. It was a data driven and candid discussion focused on how production decisions are really being made in today’s environment.